My understanding of it is this: (Per D&D Certificate)
10,000 Deluxe Sets = 60,000 Decks (10,000 per Color)
777 "additional" Carbon Copy Sets = 4662 "additional Carbon decks.
Individual decks sold/made of each color (printed at least 2x), about 5,000/10,000 print of 5 colors (x5) = 25,000/50,000 decks.
Deluxe Set: $84.95 per set = about $15 a deck (rounded up).
Deluxe Set USPCC Cost: Lets say $3.50 each, if not less due to quantity. 60,000 X $3.50 = $210,000 (estimated cost)
D&D only had to sell about 2472 out 10,000 (2472 x $84.95) Deluxe Sets to cover cost.
Deluxe Sets to be sold for profit: 7,528 = $639,000 potential profit for just the Deluxe Sets!
They sold more then 2472 sets. Those sets are "still" selling, and still a viable source of income. Given the $15 per deck ($84.95 total) asking price, I'd say D&D did very well on this particular product.
Back to the point and topic. Sorry... I realize we are discussing D&D on another products thread. 😰
The 777 "Carbon Copy" sets were part of the overall print run of 10,000 - if I'm not mistaken (and I might be), they were numbered 7,001 through 7,777.
No one knows how many individual decks were made. For all we know, they were scavenged from unsold boxed sets when D&D noticed heavy demand for individual decks instead of the boxed set.
The per-deck cost was likely low, perhaps lower than what you quoted, though there was also the cost of printing the boxes for the boxed set and the certificates of authenticity.
Did they make a profit? Probably. But I didn't claim they didn't - I was comparing the success of the boxed sets to that of the first six versions of Smoke and Mirrors series and Fulton Chinatown and pretty much all the other decks they've sold. But don't forget that they're not entirely making profit at the break-even stage for the print run - you're neglecting the cost of warehousing all the unsold sets. They take up space, they have to be inventoried, and when you want to stock new products, you probably have to make room by getting rid of the old products first - unless you get your warehouse space that cheap. I don't know if they're warehousing it all in Los Angeles or elsewhere.
I remember David Blaine was keeping some if not all of his products at his offices when I visited, but since then, all products I've received from him come from a warehouse location (or possibly a fulfillment center) located in Connecticut. I remember the Blue Crown used to keep a warehouse in New Jersey - they lost power during Hurricane Sandy, which shut down their ability to ship products. I think they're using Murphy's as a fulfillment service now - they were already using them to create the gaffed Crown Decks they were and still are selling - forcing, stripper, Svengali, Invisible.
All of that - whether you warehouse it yourself or whether you hire a company to hang on to it for you and ship when its ordered - costs money. It's money that - for the Smoke & Mirrors v7 project - they're still paying. While they might have broken even or been in the black for printing them, every day they sit unsold on their warehouse shelves is another day of red ink on the ledger, which at some point will overtake the black if they remain unsold, making the project unprofitable. For versions 1 through 6, the decks were paid for, printed, they arrived, they were ordered, they were shipped, done and dusted, all in a relatively short period of time from start to finish, probably not more than three months in total - this is dragging out six times longer and still hasn't reached the end.
In your estimate, they had to sell about 25% of the decks to be profitable. If they sold twice that much, they still have 5,000 boxed sets that they've been paying to warehouse since day one - and we're past day five-hundred-forty and still counting. Every deck cost them the amount needed to print it, the amount needed to pay for the storage space once its printed, and the employees who handle them between arrival in the warehouse and drop off at the post office.
If we do continue this discussion - and mind you, it's a good one! - we should break it off into a new topic.
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