I've been thinking about this topic for a while now, but the discussion in the Jerry's thread prompted me to make a thread about it:
http://aethercards.com/discourse/playing-card-plethora/lee-asher-jerry's-nuggets-sale-2013/20/Basically, I have this hypothesis that "limited runs" no longer result in high priced decks, or even an increase in market value.
Let's look at why people want a Jerry's Nugget, Vegas Club, Dunes, Golden Nugget or a 40s Bee deck:
- It is history.
- It is rare.
- Arguably look/handle better
Let's look at why the value of these cards has only gone up in the last decade, and continue to climb steadily every year:
- It is
history.- It is desired by more than just card collectors. Vegas memorabilia collectors, for example, would want a Jerry's. Antique collectors would want a 40's Bee deck.
- It is literally impossible to recreate them, even with the greatest minds on the planet and an infinite amount of money.
- They will never get sequels, reprints, or other such things that reduce a deck's value.
- Supply will always go down, demand will always go up.
Result? Value always goes up.
What about decks like the Gold Arcane, White Centurion, Black Ghost v1, White Ghost v1, etc.?- Demand always goes up, but supply remains steady as they are always available for purchase from stores. This is subject to change in the next decade as supplies go down.
- These decks are not history, they are just the premiere decks from beloved companies in the genre. As a result, they are sought after by no one except hardcore deck collectors.
- These decks often get sequels, reprints, etc.
- In many cases, it is literally impossible to recreate them, as they were made on old USPCC Cincinnati paper.
Result? Value remains steady at a relatively high amount, but fluctuates depending on promotions the respective company may hold (i.e. the price of the LTD deck went from 100 USD to ~40 USD because of Ellusionist promotions after the release).
What about the current stream of new and limited decks?
- They are not in any way history.
- The demand is low because of the huge supply and variety.
- These decks almost always get sequels/reprints/relreleases/etc.
- These decks are often made by amateurs, which doesn't lower the quality of the card, but definitely lowers the value since amateurs are not "famous."
- Supply will always go up, demand will continue to go down. A larger variety of choices enter the market, but not as many new collectors enter the market.
- These decks only appeal to indie art junkies + card collectors.
- Recreating these decks is simple, so there is no "OMG WHAT IF I CAN'T FIND THESE ANYWHERE NEXT YEAR!" feelings about them.
Result? These cards rarely grow in price, and rarely are easy to sell on the market. Four years ago, a release like S&Mv4 would mean that those cards are gone from shelves the next day. Today, pretty much every release is not a big deal. The rarest of decks come back as promotions, or in a rerelease.
So what will retain value in today's market? Oddly enough, it's reprints/modifications of classic decks. For example the white New Fan Back by Zenneth could be huge in a decade.
The new E/T11 deck? That will be forgotten quickly, as their next deck is right around the corner.
The same things happened in other avenues of collecting. Pokemon/Magic cards, video games, etc. They all get super saturated and then it turns into finding the diamond in the rough.
Is this bad or good? I can't say. My post is merely an observation, and it's up to you to contribute your end of the discussion and make of it what you will.
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