What's really "rare" and what's just a fad?

[xela]

I've been thinking about this topic for a while now, but the discussion in the Jerry's thread prompted me to make a thread about it: http://aethercards.com/discourse/playing-card-plethora/lee-asher-jerry's-nuggets-sale-2013/20/

Basically, I have this hypothesis that "limited runs" no longer result in high priced decks, or even an increase in market value.

Let's look at why people want a Jerry's Nugget, Vegas Club, Dunes, Golden Nugget or a 40s Bee deck:

- It is history.
- It is rare.
- Arguably look/handle better

Let's look at why the value of these cards has only gone up in the last decade, and continue to climb steadily every year:

- It is history.
- It is desired by more than just card collectors. Vegas memorabilia collectors, for example, would want a Jerry's. Antique collectors would want a 40's Bee deck.
- It is literally impossible to recreate them, even with the greatest minds on the planet and an infinite amount of money.
- They will never get sequels, reprints, or other such things that reduce a deck's value.
- Supply will always go down, demand will always go up.

Result? Value always goes up.


What about decks like the Gold Arcane, White Centurion, Black Ghost v1, White Ghost v1, etc.?

- Demand always goes up, but supply remains steady as they are always available for purchase from stores. This is subject to change in the next decade as supplies go down.
- These decks are not history, they are just the premiere decks from beloved companies in the genre. As a result, they are sought after by no one except hardcore deck collectors.
- These decks often get sequels, reprints, etc.
- In many cases, it is literally impossible to recreate them, as they were made on old USPCC Cincinnati paper.

Result? Value remains steady at a relatively high amount, but fluctuates depending on promotions the respective company may hold (i.e. the price of the LTD deck went from 100 USD to ~40 USD because of Ellusionist promotions after the release).


What about the current stream of new and limited decks?

- They are not in any way history.
- The demand is low because of the huge supply and variety.
- These decks almost always get sequels/reprints/relreleases/etc.
- These decks are often made by amateurs, which doesn't lower the quality of the card, but definitely lowers the value since amateurs are not "famous."
- Supply will always go up, demand will continue to go down. A larger variety of choices enter the market, but not as many new collectors enter the market.
- These decks only appeal to indie art junkies + card collectors.
- Recreating these decks is simple, so there is no "OMG WHAT IF I CAN'T FIND THESE ANYWHERE NEXT YEAR!" feelings about them.

Result? These cards rarely grow in price, and rarely are easy to sell on the market. Four years ago, a release like S&Mv4 would mean that those cards are gone from shelves the next day. Today, pretty much every release is not a big deal. The rarest of decks come back as promotions, or in a rerelease.

So what will retain value in today's market? Oddly enough, it's reprints/modifications of classic decks. For example the white New Fan Back by Zenneth could be huge in a decade.

The new E/T11 deck? That will be forgotten quickly, as their next deck is right around the corner.

The same things happened in other avenues of collecting. Pokemon/Magic cards, video games, etc. They all get super saturated and then it turns into finding the diamond in the rough.

Is this bad or good? I can't say. My post is merely an observation, and it's up to you to contribute your end of the discussion and make of it what you will. 

[MrMollusk]

That was actually a pretty fantastic post. I never really understood why people bout 12 brick of cards just because it's a limited deck. (Unless you're a reseller, of course.)

The only rare decks I try to hunt down are the ones that look cool. E.G. The Black and Red Artifices.

[agera94]

I like the post Alex

It seems as though a lot of the new deck designers are all just trying to create the next 'big' deck by attempting to force value onto it. "Limited Edition, 2500 only, never to be re-printed" just occurs way to much with these clip art decks. I guess the reasons why some of the decks like the red artifice and centurions decks are so expensive compared to others in a similar field is that, there was a bit of hype created for them, and they weren't easily accessible and haven't been for quite some time, and the designers would not have thought much of it becoming so popular. The demand and low supply drives up prices. Contrast that with say the gold crown deck where they try to force the value onto you.

[Curt]

100% agree. This is why I would have much less of an issue giving up 99% of the decks I own than I would giving up my sealed ~1920 bee deck (which I know you have as well Alex) or my Gold Monarch (would give up this one if I had to choose between the two). Certain decks, like the Red Artifice have more of a sentimental value to me because it brings memories of being on the Ellusionist site for 9.5hrs trying to get my order through, and reselling many of them helped fund a lot of my collection.

[BiggerDee]

Great post Alex, thank you for taking the time to express that. Good stuff!

[Don Boyer]

It's entirely possible that these decks will attain a history of their own.  But with SOOOOO many "rare" decks, there will need to be something more than simple rarity that will secure a place in history for any of them.  If they survive a hundred years, perhaps - but when made in such short quantities, they're actually reducing their chances of that happening.

Think of those 1920s Bee decks Curt and Alex have.  USPC must have printed a HUGE number of them, perhaps in the hundreds of thousands or even in the millions.  But only a small number survive, perhaps a few thousand at most.  Could be as little as one percent or less.  Assuming a similar rate of attrition, in a hundred years the deck might not even survive in any quantities.  And even if it does, it could end up being so obscure that a similarly-aged pack of Tally Ho off the shelf might be as valuable if not more.

[BiggerDee]

Not to contradict you Don, but to add another thought to ponder: While it's true that fewer old decks survived, even though millions were printed, there were undoubtedly very, very few "collectors" back then. The survivors are here mostly due to accident. Perhaps a deck was put in a trunk and never used, or a store had some inventory that was hidden. Even though 5,000 can't compare to 5,000,000 in initial print run, there are many folks that are, like myself, storing large quantities under perfect environmental conditions therefor a greater percentage of the run, as a whole, will survive. Unless my cards are subjected to a natural disaster or fire, or my next of kin sells them off when I die, my cards will survive a long time!

Want to know what would be funny? It would be interesting if all of the "rare" decks of this era, the ones that collectors and laymen hoard and don't necessarily open, became the commons in 50 years simply due to the fact that so many exist in perfect shape. The lowly 2012 version Rider Backs from Walmart, that everyone used and abused, and few collected and kept pristine, would become the true rarities! :-)

[Don Boyer]

Not to contradict you Don, but to add another thought to ponder: While it's true that fewer old decks survived, even though millions were printed, there were undoubtedly very, very few "collectors" back then. The survivors are here mostly due to accident. Perhaps a deck was put in a trunk and never used, or a store had some inventory that was hidden. Even though 5,000 can't compare to 5,000,000 in initial print run, there are many folks that are, like myself, storing large quantities under perfect environmental conditions therefor a greater percentage of the run, as a whole, will survive. Unless my cards are subjected to a natural disaster or fire, or my next of kin sells them off when I die, my cards will survive a long time!

Want to know what would be funny? It would be interesting if all of the "rare" decks of this era, the ones that collectors and laymen hoard and don't necessarily open, became the commons in 50 years simply due to the fact that so many exist in perfect shape. The lowly 2012 version Rider Backs from Walmart, that everyone used and abused, and few collected and kept pristine, would become the true rarities! :-)

That final statement is possibly the most true of all!

While you can assure yourself and the world of the near-perfect conditions under which you store your decks, you can't say the same for the next generation and the one after that.  A hundred years is FIVE generations.  You have no idea what will happen between now and 2113, am I right? 

[Collector]

No one modern USPCC deck is really rare [POINT]
PR (hype) and agressive marketing tricks bear heavily on wallets of parents.

p.s. without offence.

[agera94]

I kind of feel that the UV500 decks that E produced back in the day might see some attention in 20 years or so.

[BiggerDee]

Don, heck, I'm even pretty fuzzy about what happened today!!


Collector - I respectfully disagree, at least technically. It depends on your definition of "rare" a run of 2,500 is certainly more rare than an unlimited run. One of the true definitions of rare is "Thinly distributed over an area; few and widely separated". I would consider 2,500, or even 5,000 for that matter, distributed world-wide as "rare". That shouldn't be confused with value though. I can draw a picture of a mountain. It's certainly rare since I only drew one, and none would be exactly like it. However, even though there would only be one in the world like it, I doubt that I would get any money for it. Only one on earth, but with a value of zero. Picasso does the same thing, and people line up to pay millions for his work! Supply and demand. Demand creates the market and that, coupled with supply (perceived or real), determines price.

The true value of any deck is only what someone else is willing to pay you for it. If I can only get $20 for Jerry's Nuggets, then my decks true final value was $20. If the seller turns around and gets $500, then his/her deck's value was that. It's fluid from day to day, to a point at least. more residual value remains (after fluctuations) in some decks than in others.

Even if your deck *only* doubles in sale value, a 100% gain in a win any day in my eyes! :-)

[Paul Carpenter]

(A small aside to an interesting conversation...)

As a deck creator, I think it should be a basic responsibility to say that your deck is "limited and won't be reprinted" if that is the case. The customer deserves to know what they are buying and should have confidence that they won't see the deck they paid for available again. I don't view that as "marketing" or "hype" but a critical, basic fact of your product and an important factor in the purchase decision.

[agera94]

(A small aside to an interesting conversation...)

As a deck creator, I think it should be a basic responsibility to say that your deck is "limited and won't be reprinted" if that is the case. The customer deserves to know what they are buying and should have confidence that they won't see the deck they paid for available again. I don't view that as "marketing" or "hype" but a critical, basic fact of your product and an important factor in the purchase decision.

But you actually create good decks 

[Don Boyer]

(A small aside to an interesting conversation...)

As a deck creator, I think it should be a basic responsibility to say that your deck is "limited and won't be reprinted" if that is the case. The customer deserves to know what they are buying and should have confidence that they won't see the deck they paid for available again. I don't view that as "marketing" or "hype" but a critical, basic fact of your product and an important factor in the purchase decision.

That's legitimate, I suppose - but when that's the only interesting thing about the deck, the only worthwhile selling point, then there really is no point, is there?  Your decks have some artistic merit - but your decks still have to pass the test of time.

[Paul Carpenter]

That's legitimate, I suppose - but when that's the only interesting thing about the deck, the only worthwhile selling point, then there really is no point, is there?  Your decks have some artistic merit - but your decks still have to pass the test of time.

True. If a deck is relying 100% on being limited, then that is a crummy approach to deck creation. I guess sometimes I forget that there are folks out there that spend a week with clip art and call a deck complete and hope that because they can only afford the minimum run it will sell out. 

[Don Boyer]

That's legitimate, I suppose - but when that's the only interesting thing about the deck, the only worthwhile selling point, then there really is no point, is there?  Your decks have some artistic merit - but your decks still have to pass the test of time.

True. If a deck is relying 100% on being limited, then that is a crummy approach to deck creation. I guess sometimes I forget that there are folks out there that spend a week with clip art and call a deck complete and hope that because they can only afford the minimum run it will sell out. 

Those are decks that are prime examples of being "pointlessly rare", in that the supply is low but the demand is about as low, too, if not lower.  I can't imagine that improving in the next hundred years.  To take the previous example to the extreme, I could take a dump in a pail and preserve it, call it art - it would be rare, even one-of-a-kind...  But would you want it? 

[agera94]

That's legitimate, I suppose - but when that's the only interesting thing about the deck, the only worthwhile selling point, then there really is no point, is there?  Your decks have some artistic merit - but your decks still have to pass the test of time.

True. If a deck is relying 100% on being limited, then that is a crummy approach to deck creation. I guess sometimes I forget that there are folks out there that spend a week with clip art and call a deck complete and hope that because they can only afford the minimum run it will sell out. 

Those are decks that are prime examples of being "pointlessly rare", in that the supply is low but the demand is about as low, too, if not lower.  I can't imagine that improving in the next hundred years.  To take the previous example to the extreme, I could take a dump in a pail and preserve it, call it art - it would be rare, even one-of-a-kind...  But would you want it? 

Never to be released again... get it HAH!

[BiggerDee]

Don, would it be signed and numbered? Any foil embossing? What kind of finish will there be on the paper?

ROFL!!!

[Don Boyer]

Those are decks that are prime examples of being "pointlessly rare", in that the supply is low but the demand is about as low, too, if not lower.  I can't imagine that improving in the next hundred years.  To take the previous example to the extreme, I could take a dump in a pail and preserve it, call it art - it would be rare, even one-of-a-kind...  But would you want it? 

Never to be released again... get it HAH!

More like "Individually crafted - no two the same!"  If they were never released again, I'd be in serious trouble...

Don, would it be signed and numbered? Any foil embossing? What kind of finish will there be on the paper?

ROFL!!!

Signed and numbered?  No, but definitely personalized.
Foil embossing?  I dunno, it depends on how much tinsel I've had to eat...
Finish and paper?  Wiped finish on Charmin Extra Strong.

But back to the point - rare and valuable/desirable can be mutually exclusive.

[xela]

Paul, about your deck....

Imagine if you released Tendril or Aurum 3 years ago. No doubt, today, your decks would be selling for $50-100 a piece, and flying off of shelves.

That was back when we had 1-2 deck releases every few months.

With my deck, it spiked in price up to $20, then went down to $10 and now it's somewhere around $10-15... If I had released this deck a year earlier, it would currently be $20-30, and if I released it today, it would probably be $5-10.

When you have 200 different releases of 5k print decks, suddenly value drops. It even becomes a displaying issue, like it did for me. I had to take my ~2k decks and weed out the mediocre stuff so I could have ~200 on display. I can't buy more decks anymore, because my display is out of room.

[kdklown]

I couldn't find the answer to this question on the forum but this seems like a decent place to ask as its on topic...  I just got into deck collecting and I was wondering if there was a consolidated database somewhere with a list of production quantities.  I feel like everyone just throws out a number.  I don't open most of my decks and I want to catalogue them with pictures and pertinent information i.e. dates and quantities printed.  Thanks. 

[Curt]

A lot of information about certain decks is most likely unknown, such as the amount printed decks that are not from kickstarter or a magic company since those tend to be the people who release that information. Most kickstarter decks will have a run of ~5000 since that is generally what USPCC has at a minimum run amount (this number has changed pretty constantly and from what people say, it mainly depends on how busy USPCC is at the time and what customer they are talking to).

I don't know of a large database with the information you are requesting, I am sure there are smaller ones somewhere on the web, I've never seen a good one though. If you are looking for dates of newer decks, some will have years at the bottom of the box, that is a start. As for a catalogue, I use tumblr, http://cardcollection.tumblr.com/ , It's simple and easy to share if someone wants a look at my collection but there are plenty of ways to go about it.

[kdklown]

Great, thanks Curt

[Collector]

Collector - I respectfully disagree, at least technically. It depends on your definition of "rare" a run of 2,500 is certainly more rare than an unlimited run. One of the true definitions of rare is "Thinly distributed over an area; few and widely separated". I would consider 2,500, or even 5,000 for that matter, distributed world-wide as "rare". That shouldn't be confused with value though. I can draw a picture of a mountain. It's certainly rare since I only drew one, and none would be exactly like it. However, even though there would only be one in the world like it, I doubt that I would get any money for it. Only one on earth, but with a value of zero. Picasso does the same thing, and people line up to pay millions for his work! Supply and demand. Demand creates the market and that, coupled with supply (perceived or real), determines price.

@BiggerDee, you say right things... right for an organized and civilized market of some collectables (coins, stamps, etc). All that isn't about modern USPCC's playing card collecting. I could try to explain a lot of my thoughts but you are a clever collector so I only advise you to read this thread
http://aethercards.com/discourse/playing-card-plethora/curator-deck-2nd-print/

Yes, we have different understanding of declared limited editions and its rarity

I really don't envy collectors who spent $50-300 on a deck last year and try to convince themselves that those two additional dots on a tuck case of the second edition of the same playing cards printed this year justify their money waste. - this isn't about Curator Deck - just general hint.